Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 55–64% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1128 EWR 20:08 → MIA 23:26 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:52 → MIA 21:38 · 64% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 58% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 54% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1128 United Flight history →	EWR 20:08	MIA 23:26	55%	22%	1.1%	73%worse than usual
AA 3119 American Flight history →	EWR 18:30	MIA 21:55	56%	20%	1.4%	75%worse than usual
UA 791 United	EWR 20:21	MIA 23:15	58%	24%	1.2%	no record
AA 3016 American	EWR 18:52	MIA 21:38	64%	22%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON