Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: YX 3649 at 16:52, 26%.

Safest bet today YX 3649 EWR 16:52 → ROC 18:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3643 EWR 21:59 → ROC 23:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 3649 Republic	EWR 16:52	ROC 18:23	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 3643 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:59	ROC 23:18	31%	10%	1.4%	73%
UA 4586 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 16:57	ROC 18:27	33%	20%	14.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON