Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 54–63% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 210 EWR 16:59 → SAN 19:52 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 1102 EWR 19:22 → SAN 22:02 · 63% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 51% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 210 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	SAN 19:52	54%	24%	0.9%	67%worse than usual
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 17:09	SAN 20:02	55%	20%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 1513 United Flight history →	EWR 20:47	SAN 23:40	60%	19%	0.8%	50%worse than usual
AS 573 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:29	SAN 21:37	62%	24%	2.2%	75%worse than usual
UA 1102 United	EWR 19:22	SAN 22:02	63%	29%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON