tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:08 pm at Newark); 8 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: UA 2004 at 16:14 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–48%.

Safest bet today UA 2004 EWR 16:14 → SFO 19:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time
Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 2004 United Flight history → EWR 16:14 SFO 19:30 26% 13% 0.5% 78%
UA 2080 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 SFO 19:28 28% 13% 0.5% 62%
UA 1340 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SFO 20:37 33% 12% 0.5% 62%
UA 1558 United Flight history → EWR 19:20 SFO 22:59 44% 14% 0.7% 52%
UA 1844 United Flight history → EWR 18:00 SFO 21:28 48% 14% 0.6% 62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:05 → PDX 20:17AS 290 1h 16m Portland PDX 21:33 → SFO 23:27AS 697 9h 22m 79% 59%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 8h 53m 76% 56%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 1h 30m Chicago ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495 9h 12m 78% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON