Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:34 pm at Fresno); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1829 at 19:35, 55%.

Nonstops today


AA 1829 American Flight history →	FAT 19:35	PHX 21:15	55%	25%	0.3%	51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FAT 20:00 → LAS 21:20WN 4461	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → PHX 00:15 +1WN 3126	4h 15m	83%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	FAT 20:00 → LAS 21:20WN 4461	1h 17m Las Vegas	LAS 22:37 → PHX 23:55WN 1756	3h 55m	73%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON