Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 2539 at 12:25 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 49%.

Nonstops today


WN 2539 Southwest	FLL 12:25	AUS 14:15	33%	7%	0.1%	no record
B6 2271 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	AUS 23:08	49%	17%	0.2%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	FLL 13:32 → ORD 15:58AA 1443	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 19:10 → AUS 22:02AA 2433	9h 30m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	FLL 14:05 → MDW 16:10WN 1869	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 18:10 → AUS 20:45WN 3171	7h 40m	94%	66%
United Details →	FLL 19:13 → IAH 21:09UA 2474	1h 06m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	4h 59m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	FLL 12:46 → BWI 15:30WN 3368	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 17:40 → AUS 20:10WN 1250	8h 24m	100%	62%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749	8h 38m	95%	61%
United Details →	FLL 13:10 → IAH 15:00UA 2162	3h 50m Houston	IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674	7h 47m	98%	59%
Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	2h 00m Nashville	BNA 18:50 → AUS 21:14WN 165	6h 44m	95%	57%
United Details →	FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10UA 2724	3h 08m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	7h 11m	94%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 17:16 → ORD 19:59AA 2440	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935	7h 43m	63%	45%
United Details →	FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403	58m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312	7h 34m	61%	43%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:29 → JFK 18:48DL 305	1h 11m New York	JFK 19:59 → AUS 23:02DL 1233	8h 33m	69%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON