Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:58 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 1913 at 21:11 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–52%.

Safest bet today WN 1913 FLL 21:11 → BWI 23:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2994 FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1913 Southwest	FLL 21:11	BWI 23:55	28%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 1854 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 21:20	BWI 23:55	30%	10%	0.2%	57%
WN 411 Southwest	FLL 14:25	BWI 16:55	30%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3360 Southwest	FLL 19:24	BWI 22:09	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 1697 Southwest	FLL 19:05	BWI 21:40	35%	11%	0.2%	no record
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:55	BWI 21:23	49%	30%	0.6%	35%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	52%	24%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON