Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:43 am at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1379 FLL 21:09 → DEN 23:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1417 FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1379 United	FLL 21:09	DEN 23:57	19%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4234 Southwest	FLL 13:00	DEN 15:15	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 1417 United Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DEN 18:18	28%	6%	0.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON