Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 42–44% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:02	HOU 21:41	42%	12%	0.3%	no record
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:20	HOU 21:55	44%	12%	0.3%	30%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 18:55 → HOU 21:05WN 534	6h 35m	95%	41%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:44 → ATL 17:54DL 1341	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 07m	97%	23%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	FLL 20:30 → BNA 21:50WN 1852	49m Nashville	BNA 22:39 → HOU 00:55 +1WN 570	5h 25m	55%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON