Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:45 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: F9 2960 at 17:00, 50%.

Nonstops today


F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	50%	20%	1.0%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FLL 17:00 → IAH 18:56UA 1696	1h 20m Houston	IAH 20:16 → IAD 00:13 +1UA 1968	7h 13m	85%	55%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 13m	91%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 19:41 → CLT 21:52AA 1861	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	4h 29m	58%	39%
Delta Details →	FLL 19:45 → ATL 21:54DL 1295	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 56m	68%	32%
United Details →	FLL 17:44 → EWR 20:55UA 279	55m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	5h 35m	60%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON