Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:45 pm at Fort Lauderdale)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48% (calm day: 26%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 16:46, 37% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1413	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 03m	94%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	7h 59m	72%	53%
American Details →	FLL 17:29 → DFW 19:49AA 1862	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940	8h 29m	70%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON