Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: B6 1005 at 13:23 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 49%.

Nonstops today


B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:23	TPA 14:34	32%	10%	0.7%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	49%	20%	0.8%	64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 14:05 → MDW 16:10WN 1869	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 18:35 → TPA 22:15WN 3554	8h 10m	97%	65%
Southwest Details →	FLL 12:46 → BWI 15:30WN 3368	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 17:50 → TPA 20:28WN 1180	7h 42m	100%	58%
United Details →	FLL 12:26 → ORD 14:55UA 1755	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 16:40 → TPA 20:26UA 1393	8h 00m	89%	56%
United Details →	FLL 13:10 → IAH 15:00UA 2162	3h 10m Houston	IAH 18:10 → TPA 21:29UA 1312	8h 19m	98%	55%
Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → TPA 23:32WN 744	8h 02m	98%	49%
American Details →	FLL 13:55 → CLT 16:08AA 1877	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 18:53 → TPA 20:49AA 3051	6h 54m	94%	46%
JetBlue Details →	FLL 16:20 → SJU 19:04B6 153	1h 51m San Juan	SJU 20:55 → TPA 23:59B6 2752	7h 39m	93%	46%
American Details →	FLL 16:12 → CLT 18:26AA 1875	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59AA 2022	5h 47m	90%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	53m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	4h 31m	61%	28%
American Details →	FLL 15:57 → PHL 18:53AA 1855	52m Philadelphia	PHL 19:45 → TPA 22:37AA 2322	6h 40m	61%	25%
American Details →	FLL 15:13 → DFW 17:27AA 1390	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:25 → TPA 22:13AA 2256	7h 00m	52%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON