Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:28 pm at Spokane); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 19:00, 78% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	GEG 19:00 → SMF 20:50WN 1890	3h 00m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	8h 45m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	GEG 18:00 → LAS 20:20WN 1951	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	9h 25m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	GEG 15:05 → DEN 18:20WN 1880	2h 03m Denver	DEN 20:23 → MDW 23:46WN 3047	6h 41m	94%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GEG 12:50 → ATL 20:19DL 787	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 25m	61%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON