Today: AA 3351 at 20:23 is the safest bet, 39% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43–69%.

Safest bet today AA 3351 HOU 20:23 → DFW 21:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 6385 HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 57% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 54% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 20:23	DFW 21:50	39%	11%	1.9%	73%worse than usual
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 20:19	DFW 21:35	43%	11%	1.8%	56%
AA 9754 American	HOU 17:04	DFW 18:34	60%	20%	1.4%	no record
OO 6252 SkyWest	HOU 18:22	DFW 19:58	63%	24%	2.4%	no record
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 16:14	DFW 17:38	69%	27%	2.2%	60%worse than usual
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 18:49	DFW 20:15	69%	27%	2.4%	52%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON