Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2060 at 22:35, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 2060 HOU 22:35 → LAS 23:48 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2058 HOU 16:50 → LAS 18:00 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2060 Southwest	HOU 22:35	LAS 23:48	46%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 2003 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:35	LAS 17:45	47%	11%	0.1%	58%
WN 3956 Southwest	HOU 19:10	LAS 20:20	48%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2059 Southwest	HOU 18:20	LAS 19:30	48%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	HOU 16:50	LAS 18:00	48%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON