Today: WN 223 at 14:35 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet today WN 223 HOU 14:35 → LAX 16:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4748 HOU 22:45 → LAX 00:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 223 Southwest	HOU 14:35	LAX 16:05	28%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4857 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:30	LAX 18:55	36%	4%	0.1%	39%
WN 1372 Southwest	HOU 22:40	LAX 00:10	41%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest	HOU 22:45	LAX 00:12	41%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON