Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4880 at 21:35, 55%.

Nonstops today


WN 4880 Southwest	HOU 21:35	ONT 22:58	55%	11%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 20:05 → PHX 20:45WN 2065	2h 02m Phoenix	PHX 22:47 → ONT 00:11 +1WN 3223	6h 06m	91%	38%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534	7h 10m	86%	27%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711	5h 43m	53%	18%
American Details →	HOU 20:23 → DFW 21:50AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695	5h 32m	48%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON