Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:05 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60% (calm day: 47%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 20:05, 42% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 20:05 → PHX 20:45WN 2065	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 22:51 → SMF 00:58 +1WN 1557	6h 53m	94%	42%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	7h 10m	84%	30%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:28 → DAL 20:06WN 52	1h 54m Dallas	DAL 22:00 → SMF 23:45WN 3841	6h 17m	85%	27%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 20:20 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	5h 39m	58%	21%
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:05 → PHX 20:45WN 2065	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 21:51 → SMF 23:58WN 3499	5h 53m	49%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON