Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:11 pm at Houston); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2614 at 22:11, 46%.

Nonstops today


WN 2614 Southwest	HOU 22:11	STL 00:18	46%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3962 Southwest	HOU 20:45	STL 22:50	53%	11%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 19:06 → DAL 20:19WN 52	2h 37m Dallas	DAL 22:56 → STL 00:45 +1WN 4151	5h 39m	95%	40%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58AA 3049	5h 09m	78%	30%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 36m	89%	23%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:33 → DAL 21:47WN 54	1h 09m Dallas	DAL 22:56 → STL 00:45 +1WN 4151	4h 12m	63%	26%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:51 → STL 23:45AA 1445	4h 56m	66%	25%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:06 → DAL 20:19WN 52	1h 12m Dallas	DAL 21:31 → STL 23:21WN 1418	4h 15m	64%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON