Today: WN 2397 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–54%.

Safest bet today WN 2397 HOU 08:01 → SJC 10:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1341 IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2397 Southwest	HOU 08:01	SJC 10:02	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2079 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:05	SJC 09:55	9%	2%	0.1%	82%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	25%	4%	0.3%	68%
UA 1882 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SJC 12:03	30%	5%	0.3%	79%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	30%	7%	0.7%	80%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	31%	6%	0.3%	74%
UA 2756 United Flight history →	IAH 13:05	SFO 15:10	38%	9%	0.2%	68%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	IAH 12:37	SFO 14:44	39%	8%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	39%	9%	0.3%	80%worse than usual
UA 1202 United	IAH 19:46	SFO 22:07	42%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1557 Southwest	HOU 16:40	OAK 18:35	43%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	46%	9%	0.3%	73%worse than usual
UA 1134 United	IAH 17:21	SFO 19:29	50%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 2607 United	IAH 18:13	SFO 20:31	52%	12%	0.2%	no record
UA 1341 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	SFO 20:10	54%	11%	0.2%	62%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:55 → SAN 09:05WN 3824	1h 10m San Diego	SAN 10:15 → SJC 11:40WN 3538	5h 45m	89%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON