Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2067 at 10:11, 28%.

Safest bet today WN 2067 HOU 10:11 → LGA 14:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 282 IAH 18:17 → JFK 23:00 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2067 Southwest	HOU 10:11	LGA 14:35	28%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	28%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 10:53	LGA 15:22	29%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	LGA 14:29	29%	7%	0.5%	77%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:50	LGA 15:32	30%	8%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	31%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	33%	10%	0.5%	66%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	36%	10%	0.6%	72%
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:01	LGA 18:29	39%	11%	0.5%	no record
DL 2088 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:10	LGA 18:59	40%	11%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:45	EWR 18:29	40%	13%	0.6%	74%worse than usual
UA 2249 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LGA 19:04	42%	11%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
UA 775 United	IAH 14:44	LGA 19:37	42%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 2943 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LGA 23:20	43%	14%	0.6%	60%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	46%	13%	1.6%	76%worse than usual
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:39	LGA 23:08	46%	12%	0.6%	no record
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:53	JFK 16:33	46%	26%	0.9%	50%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	46%	11%	0.7%	66%worse than usual
WN 4684 Southwest	HOU 15:01	LGA 19:25	47%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:23	LGA 22:15	47%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 3483 Southwest	HOU 17:31	LGA 22:05	47%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 2783 United Flight history →	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:14	48%	13%	0.6%	42%
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	48%	14%	0.6%	61%
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	49%	10%	1.0%	28%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	49%	15%	0.6%	59%
UA 2857 United Flight history →	IAH 17:15	LGA 21:59	49%	12%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	49%	16%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:30	LGA 22:59	53%	12%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	54%	30%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON