Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2846 IAD 22:27 → DTW 00:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1787 IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2846 United	IAD 22:27	DTW 00:15	22%	6%	0.3%	no record
DL 1787 Delta Flight history →	IAD 17:26	DTW 19:15	26%	12%	0.6%	76%
UA 6246 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:22	DTW 19:02	22%	11%	4.3%	78%
UA 3995 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:10	DTW 23:51	38%	16%	2.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON