Today: UA 3916 at 23:34 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–69%.

Safest bet today UA 3916 IAD 23:34 → EWR 01:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3916 United	IAD 23:34	EWR 01:05	26%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	IAD 22:27	EWR 23:57	35%	12%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
UA 1831 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	EWR 19:10	69%	34%	0.7%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON