Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:59 am at Dulles); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: UA 1379 at 17:42 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops today


UA 1379 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	FLL 20:32	27%	9%	0.3%	81%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	46%	20%	1.3%	53%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535	3h 15m Houston	IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956	9h 14m	96%	71%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463	9h 00m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:29 → JFK 13:55DL 5835 · flown by Republic	1h 35m New York	JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54DL 1419	6h 25m	89%	60%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 32m	91%	60%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → FLL 23:24DL 1107	7h 39m	94%	59%
American Details →	IAD 13:08 → CLT 14:42AA 5220 · flown by PSA	2h 16m Charlotte	CLT 16:58 → FLL 19:11AA 1364	6h 03m	95%	58%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	7h 04m	95%	58%
American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	1h 56m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → FLL 00:47 +1AA 321	5h 37m	90%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → FLL 23:24DL 1107	5h 17m	70%	44%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	4h 44m	62%	37%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 34m Newark	EWR 20:44 → FLL 23:59UA 1897	6h 17m	66%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON