Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:05 pm at Dulles)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:45, 36% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 06m	91%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 33m	45%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON