Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:08 pm at Dulles)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: American via Charlotte, leaving 19:10, 46% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 16m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	5h 41m	93%	46%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	6h 44m	91%	37%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606	6h 37m	93%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → PBI 22:45AA 2467	7h 30m	75%	30%
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	4h 29m	55%	27%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 09m Newark	EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650	5h 46m	43%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON