Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Dulles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1140 at 18:00, 37%.

Nonstops today


UA 1140 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	TPA 20:39	37%	14%	1.0%	75%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:41 +1AA 1773	5h 31m	92%	48%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 22m	90%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 34m Newark	EWR 20:44 → TPA 23:49UA 1505	6h 07m	71%	29%
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:41 +1AA 1773	4h 19m	46%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON