Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: UA 5917 at 16:55, 46%.

Nonstops today


UA 5917 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:55	ASE 18:45	46%	19%	0.8%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 16:38 → DEN 18:35UA 470	1h 50m Denver	DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	88%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 16:21 → DEN 18:23UA 484	47m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	52%	31%
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → ASE 20:17AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	42%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON