Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1795 at 18:32, 42%.

Safest bet today UA 1795 IAH 18:32 → BWI 22:45 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1795 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	BWI 22:45	42%	10%	0.2%	64%
UA 1830 United	IAH 18:22	BWI 22:25	42%	11%	0.2%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	60%	29%	1.0%	52%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON