Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1865 at 15:27, 40%.

Safest bet today DL 1865 IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest F9 1958 IAH 14:54 → DTW 18:49 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1865 Delta Flight history →	IAH 15:27	DTW 19:15	40%	12%	0.2%	67%
DL 1529 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:55	DTW 23:44	42%	13%	0.2%	70%worse than usual
UA 2755 United	IAH 18:44	DTW 22:44	42%	14%	0.2%	no record
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	IAH 15:20	DTW 18:58	43%	10%	0.2%	74%worse than usual
F9 1958 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:54	DTW 18:49	56%	17%	0.6%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON