Today: UA 462 at 14:20 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–54%.

Safest bet today UA 462 IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	26%	10%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	26%	8%	0.2%	77%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	FLL 20:07	26%	9%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:52	FLL 18:41	28%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	28%	10%	0.2%	64%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:57	FLL 15:34	29%	10%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	53%	17%	0.5%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	54%	19%	0.4%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON