Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:23 pm at Houston)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1563 at 20:31, 40%.

Nonstops today


UA 1563 United Flight history →	IAH 20:31	ONT 21:55	40%	18%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:12	ONT 17:50	52%	20%	0.7%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 47m	88%	67%
United Details →	IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658	10h 21m	90%	62%
United Details →	IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552	9h 07m	96%	58%
American Details →	IAH 14:59 → CLT 18:31AA 1478	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036	9h 35m	85%	55%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	2h 37m Denver	DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028	7h 42m	96%	55%
American Details →	IAH 14:14 → PHX 15:07AA 2357	1h 47m Phoenix	PHX 16:54 → ONT 18:20AA 1666	6h 06m	83%	47%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779	9h 12m	92%	44%
American Details →	IAH 14:25 → PHX 15:16AA 2710	1h 48m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639	5h 53m	82%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341	50m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552	6h 32m	42%	25%
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → ONT 19:59AA 2236	5h 41m	48%	20%
American Details →	IAH 19:17 → DFW 20:32AA 2438	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711	5h 15m	25%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON