Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 39–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2198 IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 1542 IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SAT 22:42	39%	9%	0.3%	69%
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:49	SAT 19:57	42%	11%	0.3%	74%worse than usual
UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:35	SAT 17:44	42%	19%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	SAT 21:13	45%	11%	0.3%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON