Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:12 pm at Houston); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2157 at 20:25, 55%.

Nonstops today


UA 2157 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	SLC 22:43	55%	19%	0.3%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 19:17 → DFW 20:32AA 2438	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:53 → SLC 23:48AA 2507	5h 31m	57%	18%
American Details →	IAH 19:49 → DFW 21:15AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	5h 47m	56%	17%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON