Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2812 at 14:34, 37%.

Nonstops today


UA 2812 United Flight history →	IAH 14:34	TPA 17:55	37%	10%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 1312 United Flight history →	IAH 18:10	TPA 21:29	45%	16%	0.7%	77%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 14:16 → ORD 17:12AA 3322	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 353	9h 03m	89%	60%
American Details →	IAH 16:43 → MIA 20:23AA 678	2h 50m Miami	MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714	6h 36m	91%	54%
American Details →	IAH 15:06 → CLT 18:51AA 1919	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 22:46 → TPA 00:41 +1AA 1773	8h 35m	96%	49%
American Details →	IAH 14:59 → CLT 18:31AA 1478	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59AA 2022	6h 00m	76%	38%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	5h 52m	89%	37%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 38m	94%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:26DL 2678	49m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	6h 51m	39%	26%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:57DL 1651	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	4h 36m	44%	16%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → TPA 22:30DL 1591	4h 39m	29%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON