Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Indianapolis); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 349 at 17:01, 44%.

Safest bet today WN 349 IND 17:01 → BWI 18:48 · 44% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2479 IND 20:06 → BWI 21:53 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 349 Southwest	IND 17:01	BWI 18:48	44%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 4383 Southwest	IND 18:00	BWI 19:45	46%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 2479 Southwest	IND 20:06	BWI 21:53	46%	11%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON