tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Jacksonville); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 33% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211 2h 54m Chicago ORD 21:42 → IAD 00:35 +1UA 1922 7h 40m 85% 66%
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:00 → CLT 19:29AA 2898 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 6h 07m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 5h 39m 87% 54%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:48 → EWR 19:12UA 2796 2h 38m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 6h 31m 76% 40%
DeltaDetails → JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 4h 49m 80% 39%
FrontierDetails → JAX 18:29 → ATL 20:12F9 3083 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:26 → IAD 00:30 +1F9 3692 6h 01m 77% 32%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:00 → CLT 19:29AA 2898 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 4h 05m 45% 30%
AmericanDetails → JAX 20:25 → CLT 21:51AA 1999 54m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 3h 45m 45% 28%
AmericanDetails → JAX 20:17 → CLT 21:50AA 1991 46m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 3h 50m 33% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON