tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:33 am at New York); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → JFK 10:11 → ORD 12:05AA 4365 · flown by Republic 1h 44m Chicago ORD 13:49 → BZN 16:13AA 1639 8h 02m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:03 → MSP 19:59DL 2245 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 49m 83% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 7h 54m 56% 45%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774 7h 57m 42% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON