Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5743 at 21:20, 39%.

Safest bet today DL 5743 JFK 21:20 → DCA 22:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	39%	23%	0.8%	68%
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:41	DCA 23:23	40%	23%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
YX 4463 Republic	JFK 21:56	DCA 23:29	45%	22%	1.2%	no record
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:53	DCA 16:23	47%	15%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	64%	43%	1.1%	53%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON