Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:08 pm at New York); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: YX 5779 at 16:02, 50%.

Nonstops today


YX 5779 Republic	JFK 16:02	IAD 17:33	50%	28%	2.2%	no record
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	6h 35m	87%	65%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	83%	61%
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	7h 07m	88%	58%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 01m	80%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	5h 05m	37%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON