Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:28 pm at New York); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1186 at 22:10, 56%.

Nonstops today


B6 1186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:10	ROC 23:49	56%	22%	0.8%	64%worse than usual
DL 5297 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:59	ROC 00:53	27%	12%	6.9%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:06AA 4346 · flown by Republic	2h 23m Boston	BOS 21:29 → ROC 23:06AA 4662 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	74%	60%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	6h 08m	34%	8%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON