Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4662
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4662 · BOS → ROC
departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.