Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4662
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4662 · BOS → ROC
departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at BOS that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.