Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4662
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4662 · BOS → ROC
departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 23%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.