tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:33 pm at New York)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:27, 69% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 10h 12m 90% 69%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:54 → LAX 18:42DL 707 2h 10m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:13DL 1420 9h 19m 90% 58%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:05 → LAX 19:13DL 353 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 20:59 → SJC 22:13DL 3073 9h 08m 86% 55%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08AS 25 2h 17m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 9h 58m 93% 53%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 08m 86% 49%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 11h 16m 96% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:48 → LAX 19:38DL 738 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:13DL 1420 8h 25m 67% 44%
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:00 → PHX 19:31AA 2339 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 20:43 → SJC 22:52AA 1537 8h 52m 67% 38%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08AS 25 1h 06m San Diego SAN 21:14 → SJC 22:47AS 1308 8h 50m 64% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON