tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:28 pm at New York); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 13:59, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → JFK 13:59 → ORD 15:53AA 3321 1h 56m Chicago ORD 17:49 → SNA 20:22AA 1179 9h 23m 81% 57%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 10h 42m 95% 54%
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:00 → PHX 19:31AA 2339 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637 8h 26m 77% 49%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 44m 86% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 8h 33m 67% 53%
AmericanDetails → JFK 13:59 → ORD 15:53AA 3321 1h 12m Chicago ORD 17:05 → SNA 19:27AA 519 8h 28m 73% 51%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806 8h 40m 74% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON