Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:31 am at Los Angeles area); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Today: DL 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet today DL 392 LAX 07:30 → DCA 15:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1438 LAX 13:40 → BWI 21:40 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	11%	3%	0.4%	81%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	13%	3%	0.2%	83%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	14%	3%	0.2%	84%
UA 688 United	SNA 08:22	IAD 16:23	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:36	IAD 07:40	18%	6%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	IAD 05:49	18%	6%	0.9%	89%
UA 2632 United Flight history →	LAX 21:20	IAD 05:26	19%	7%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
UA 349 United Flight history →	LAX 22:41	IAD 06:47	19%	6%	0.9%	88%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	IAD 06:47	20%	6%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	20%	4%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 1573 United Flight history →	LAX 16:49	IAD 00:55	22%	6%	0.3%	92%worse than usual
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:08	BWI 07:17	22%	7%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:43	IAD 00:59	23%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3143 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:40	BWI 05:30	23%	6%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	25%	5%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 1635 United Flight history →	LAX 12:43	IAD 20:48	25%	5%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	28%	7%	0.2%	78%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:22	IAD 21:22	29%	6%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
WN 2385 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:45	33%	8%	0.7%	71%
WN 2477 Southwest	LAX 21:51	BWI 05:49	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	33%	9%	0.5%	78%worse than usual
AA 1200 American Flight history →	LAX 21:01	IAD 05:00	33%	10%	1.0%	71%
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:26	BWI 21:27	40%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 1438 Southwest	LAX 13:40	BWI 21:40	42%	9%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 06:35 → LAS 07:45WN 2403	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 08:55 → BWI 16:35WN 235	7h 00m	98%	78%
United Details →	ONT 06:57 → ORD 12:59UA 2226	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	7h 15m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → BWI 18:19DL 2565	7h 14m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON