Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:16 am at Los Angeles area); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: UA 418 at 23:36 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–48%.

Safest bet today UA 418 LAX 23:36 → IAD 07:39 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1438 LAX 13:40 → BWI 21:40 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:36	IAD 07:39	17%	6%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
UA 349 United Flight history →	LAX 22:41	IAD 06:47	19%	6%	0.8%	88%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	IAD 06:46	20%	6%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
UA 2632 United Flight history →	LAX 21:20	IAD 05:26	21%	4%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:08	BWI 07:17	21%	6%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	IAD 05:48	21%	5%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
UA 1635 United Flight history →	LAX 12:43	IAD 20:48	22%	7%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
UA 1573 United Flight history →	LAX 16:49	IAD 00:55	25%	9%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
AA 1200 American Flight history →	LAX 21:01	IAD 05:00	26%	11%	0.2%	71%
WN 3143 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:40	BWI 05:30	26%	6%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:43	IAD 00:58	26%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:22	IAD 21:21	28%	8%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	31%	10%	0.4%	78%
WN 2477 Southwest	LAX 21:51	BWI 05:49	37%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	37%	10%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
WN 2385 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:45	38%	7%	0.2%	71%
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:26	BWI 21:27	47%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1438 Southwest	LAX 13:40	BWI 21:40	48%	12%	0.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LGB 14:00 → LAS 15:10WN 2334	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 16:35 → BWI 00:15 +1WN 2206	7h 15m	94%	59%
Southwest Details →	LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400	1h 21m St Louis	STL 20:31 → BWI 23:39WN 4048	7h 09m	78%	55%
Southwest Details →	LGB 19:45 → SMF 21:05WN 2507	46m Sacramento	SMF 21:51 → BWI 05:51 +1WN 3907	7h 06m	76%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON