Today: WN 333 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet today WN 333 LAS 09:06 → BNA 14:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4395 LAS 14:45 → BNA 20:20 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 333 Southwest	LAS 09:06	BNA 14:45	21%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2191 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:25	BNA 05:00	28%	6%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 4088 Southwest	LAS 23:45	BNA 05:22	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2238 Southwest	LAS 12:41	BNA 18:19	37%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 2266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:18	BNA 00:55	40%	12%	0.1%	72%worse than usual
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 15:02	BNA 20:40	42%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 646 Southwest	LAS 13:55	BNA 19:33	43%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 1527 Southwest	LAS 17:40	BNA 23:20	43%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 3260 Southwest	LAS 19:15	BNA 00:55	43%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 4395 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:45	BNA 20:20	45%	9%	0.1%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON