Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:09 pm at Las Vegas); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2751 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	CLT 07:04	27%	6%	0.4%	91%worse than usual
AA 1454 American Flight history →	LAS 22:41	CLT 06:00	35%	8%	0.4%	82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 19:44 → PHX 21:05AA 3320	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	7h 51m	91%	76%
American Details →	LAS 20:05 → PHX 21:18AA 1022	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → CLT 06:52 +1AA 2821	7h 47m	79%	65%
American Details →	LAS 18:03 → LAX 19:23AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → CLT 06:19 +1AA 3035	9h 16m	100%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 20:05 → PHX 21:18AA 1022	1h 33m Phoenix	PHX 22:51 → CLT 06:03 +1AA 2714	6h 58m	62%	46%
American Details →	LAS 19:25 → LAX 20:41AA 1399	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 21:41 → CLT 05:24 +1AA 2199	6h 59m	38%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON