Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 49% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2220 at 17:55, 58%.

Safest bet today WN 2220 LAS 17:55 → DAL 22:45 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 4687 LAS 18:48 → DAL 23:32 · 67% chance 15+ min late

Weather 64% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2220 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:55	DAL 22:45	58%	18%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
WN 2782 Southwest	LAS 18:45	DAL 23:30	67%	18%	0.5%	no record
WN 4687 Southwest	LAS 18:48	DAL 23:32	67%	19%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON